Experts adopt the multi-model fusion methodology: The Bloomberg Quantitative team input 12 parameters such as the TVL growth rate (annualized 40%, present value of $35 million), on-chain active addresses (daily active 28,000, monthly increase of 8%), and staking yield (8.5%) into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and output the target price of $1.85 for 2025 (confidence interval ±15%). At the same time, referring to the on-chain value indicator of CoinMetrics (the NVT ratio < 50 is the undervaluation threshold), the price deviation rate should be controlled within ±0.2 US dollars.
Technical experts rely on machine learning algorithms – training the LSTM neural network based on historical transaction data of 300,000 transactions, and analyzing that for every $0.1 decrease in Gas fee cost (currently $0.05), the corresponding price increases by 9%, and the price elasticity coefficient is 1.35 when the network throughput reaches 10,000 TPS. However, the dYdX security incident in 2023 demonstrated that if the probability of a smart contract vulnerability is greater than 0.05% (with an audit score of 98), the model needs to add a 15% risk premium correction.
Regulatory variables are quantified through probability trees: The probability of the US SEC passing the securitization token bill is 40% (or increasing compliance costs by 3 million US dollars), and the European MiCA bill has led to an 18% decline in the depth of exchange liquidity (the peak has shrunk from 1 million to 820,000 US dollars). Experts used Bayesian network simulation. If the regulatory sandbox is implemented (with a probability of 55%), the newton protocol token price prediction could be increased by 12%, such as referring to the judicial case where Ripple soared by 70% in a single day after partially winning the lawsuit in 2023.
Market sentiment factors were incorporated into the Graybox model – Santiment’s data shows that the monthly mention rate on social media increased by 22%, and the implied volatility of options was 40%, corresponding to a price range of $1.50- $2.30. However, market maker behavior analysis reveals that when Binance’s block trading ratio exceeds 15% (currently 12%), it may trigger a short-term slippage of 5%, and a ±8% liquidity adjustment item needs to be inserted in the forecast.
The ecological expansion value is calculated by the multiplier effect: For each new DApp added (the current goal is to increase from 25 to 50), the TVL increases by 8%. Refer to the case where Mantle’s TVL increased by 200% in a single month after integrating Lido. Combining token deflation (annual burn rate of 1.5%) with the institutional holding target (30%), the Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 iterations shows a 70% probability of reaching $1.90 in 2025. Experts suggest configuring a position of ≤10% to balance an annualized return of 18% and a maximum drag risk of 30%. Meanwhile, continuously monitor the delay risk of cross-chain Bridges (with a deployment probability of over 6 months of 20%, which can lead to prediction failure of 15%).